Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeedd…1c3e world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 19% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 7% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 8% -9.8%
all 35 +0.5% -9.1% 23% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage295d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $97 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $61 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +21%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 320 and 339 times September 5–12? Sep 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Sep 04 $27 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $0 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $33 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $22 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $31 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $20 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $10 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $30 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $25 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $5 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.60 · official $30.60 (match) · 121 history records