Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xeedb…f631 sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$326 (+5%) realized +$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 38L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 44% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -3.0% -12.3% 49% 42% -6.0%
all 74 -3.0% -12.3% 49% 42% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 42% -6.0%
10% -20.7% 27% -15.0%
15% -28.3% 18% -23.2%
20% -35.4% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 38
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage61d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$11 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$21 +205%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 May 14 $41 −$11 -27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 May 14 $49 −$10 -20%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $25 −$10 -40%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $41 −$9 -22%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $38 +$32 +86%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $71 +$21 +30%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $51 −$20 -40%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $174 −$1 -1%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $9 −$9 -91%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 08 $13 +$1 +11%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 03 $35 −$34 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 03 $30 −$30 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 206.5 May 03 $75 −$12 -15%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $49 −$18 -37%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 May 02 $35 +$17 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 May 02 $42 +$5 +11%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 02 $40 +$33 +83%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 01 $33 +$32 +98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 May 01 $59 +$7 +12%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 May 01 $25 +$8 +30%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 May 01 $33 −$11 -33%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $5 −$4 -70%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 30 $302 +$96 +32%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 30 $111 −$21 -19%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 Apr 29 $72 +$23 +32%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $100 −$59 -59%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $209 +$23 +11%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $31 +$4 +14%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Apr 29 $87 +$8 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $100 +$43 +43%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $110 +$75 +68%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $104 +$24 +23%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $102 +$64 +62%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 218.5 Apr 26 $102 +$89 +87%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5 Apr 26 $478 +$132 +28%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $315 −$110 -35%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 25 $474 −$8 -2%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $388 −$53 -14%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $20 −$4 -18%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Apr 25 $364 +$35 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $17 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 87¢ $24 19m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 31m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $31 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $10 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $10 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 3d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 SELL Over 30¢ $23 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 SELL Over 36¢ $7 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 42¢ $38 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 SELL Under 40¢ $39 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 49¢ $45 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 33¢ $15 37d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 37¢ $1 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 41¢ $31 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 38d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $38 39d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 83¢ $92 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 SELL Under 28¢ $0 40d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 63¢ $71 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records