Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeed8…8d2c other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1
politics 25% $0
economics 20% −$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.8%
all 20 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage118d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $106 −$3 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $107 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $103 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 24d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 29d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $103 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $103 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $103 40d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $103 41d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $106 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $106 43d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $106 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $106 44d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $107 51d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $107 52d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $108 69d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 69d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $108 74d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $108 75d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $108 79d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $108 80d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 84d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 85d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $108 92d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records