Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xeed8…82f3 sports 34 markets active 9h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+14%) realized +$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$110
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$16
other 33% +$92
crypto 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.8% -2.5% 36% 36% +5.8%
≤30d 30 -10.2% -18.7% 30% 30% +3.2%
≤90d 30 -10.2% -18.7% 30% 30% +3.2%
all 30 -10.2% -18.7% 30% 30% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 30% +3.2%
10% -26.5% 30% -6.7%
15% -33.6% 23% -15.7%
20% -40.1% 23% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$8 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage11d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 +$36 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 +$24 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $14 +$17 +118%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 +$50 +109%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $10 +$16 +161%
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Jaqueline Cristian vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $9 +$12 +134%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $16 +$30 +185%
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 10 $60 +$52 +87%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $37 −$1 -4%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $55 −$17 -31%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $88 +$27 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Hungary vs. Finland end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $147 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026 BUY 11¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $28 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 25¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Will Sweden w BUY $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $46 4d
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 38¢ $10 4d
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $16 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $12 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5d
Jaqueline Cristian vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 39¢ $16 5d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 42¢ $9 5d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 99¢ $47 6d
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) SELL Anisimova 100¢ $112 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 34¢ $16 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 66¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 50 history records