Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeed6…82f2 crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized +$33 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%78W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$35
14 days−$7
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$156
sports 26% +$121
other 15% −$40
politics 3% −$56
weather 1% −$12
culture 1% +$1
economics 0% −$4
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.3% +2.5% 52% 48% +1.5%
≤30d 165 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 40% -11.5%
≤90d 184 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 40% -10.4%
all 186 +3.5% -6.4% 42% 40% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 40% -11.6%
10% -15.3% 36% -20.0%
15% -23.5% 34% -27.8%
20% -31.0% 30% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses78 / 108
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)186 / 204
History coverage154d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 25¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-43%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-93%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +213%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$9 +85%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $107 −$17 -16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$3 -18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$3 +17%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $26 +$2 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$16 +156%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $25 +$17 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 50m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 54m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 13h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.04 · official $170.10 (match) · 458 history records