trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $287,794 | $284,068 | −$3,726 (-1%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 91¢ | 69¢ | $154,582 | $116,986 | −$37,595 (-24%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 76¢ | $72,796 | $61,449 | −$11,347 (-16%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 78¢ | $71,796 | $58,080 | −$13,716 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $143,733 | +$12,028 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $73,222 | +$3,189 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $290,033 | +$29,877 | +10% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $14,903 | +$819 | +6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $290,972 | +$44,220 | +15% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $165,175 | +$56,239 | +34% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 30 | $44,017 | +$3,137 | +7% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | May 29 | $108,964 | +$7,853 | +7% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | May 28 | $75,704 | +$6,326 | +8% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 27 | $36,235 | +$8,987 | +25% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | May 26 | $36,294 | +$2,996 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 16 | $74,026 | +$4,540 | +6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $164,971 | +$40,548 | +25% |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | May 13 | $66,695 | +$9,140 | +14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 09 | $73,421 | +$12,183 | +17% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | Apr 25 | $20,000 | +$4,469 | +22% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | Apr 25 | $19,982 | +$1,164 | +6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Apr 25 | $20,000 | +$8,558 | +43% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 23 | $44,600 | +$9,146 | +20% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $10,000 | +$2,357 | +24% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $19,990 | +$2,324 | +12% |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Apr 07 | $7,195 | −$6,856 | -95% |
| UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight | Mar 29 | $7,193 | +$9,289 | +129% |
| UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | Mar 21 | $27,029 | −$27,029 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main | Mar 21 | $16,174 | +$6,909 | +43% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +7.7% | -2.6% | 100% | 0% | -1.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +12.7% | +2.0% | 100% | 36% | +3.6% |
| ≤90d | 25 | +11.9% | +1.3% | 92% | 52% | +2.8% |
| all | 25 | +11.9% | +1.3% | 92% | 52% | +2.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +1.3% | 52% | +2.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -8.4% | 32% | -7.0% |
| 15% | -17.3% | 12% | -16.0% |
| 20% | -25.4% | 4% | -24.2% |