Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeed2…eac8 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$42
world 42% −$15
other 12% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 15 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 0% -9.1%
all 15 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -27.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -34.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage84d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $260 $265 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 29 $457 +$33 +7%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? May 27 $451 −$19 -4%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 27 $462 +$18 +4%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? May 26 $445 +$2 +0%
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5) May 26 $441 +$19 +4%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? May 25 $442 −$5 -1%
Spread: HUS Agadir (-2.5) May 08 $471 +$29 +6%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $471 $0 +0%
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) May 07 $460 +$10 +2%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? May 02 $470 −$4 -1%
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) May 02 $447 +$23 +5%
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? May 01 $448 −$2 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $300 +$10 +3%
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $260 1h
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group BUY BESTIA 93¢ $457 21d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $432 21d
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $451 21d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $462 21d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $448 21d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $445 21d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-1.5) BUY Tromsø IL 96¢ $441 22d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $437 22d
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $442 23d
Spread: HUS Agadir (-2.5) BUY Difaâ Hassani El Jadida 94¢ $471 41d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $471 41d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $471 41d
Spread: Levante UD (-2.5) BUY Villarreal CF 98¢ $460 46d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $466 46d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $470 46d
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY AC Monza 95¢ $447 47d
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? SELL No 91¢ $447 47d
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? BUY No 91¢ $448 47d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $150 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $115 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $160 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 53d
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino $19 77d
Spread: Grêmio Novorizontino (-1.5) BUY Grêmio Novorizontino $21 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.74 · official $265.44 (match) · 39 history records