Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xeed1…4b4d crypto 1188 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$495 (-2%) realized −$490 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%988W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$68
14 days−$66
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$438
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -5.7% -14.7% 78% 19% -14.8%
≤30d 283 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 29% -11.2%
≤90d 1152 -0.6% -10.1% 86% 14% -10.7%
all 1152 -0.6% -10.1% 86% 14% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 14% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 5% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$490
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses988 / 164
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions36
Markets (closed)1152 / 1188
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 1152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 76¢ 69¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$9 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$14 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$14 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 38m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 38m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 38m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 38m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 38m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 39m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 39m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $50 53m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 57m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 57m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 57m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 58m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 58m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 58m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 58m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 58m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 58m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 58m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 58m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 59m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 59m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 59m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 59m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 59m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.82 · official $81.82 (match) · 3500 history records