Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xeece…4c4e politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-0%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$178
other 7% −$2
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 26 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$986) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage63d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,782 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $814 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $257 −$53 -21%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $873 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $565 −$95 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $986 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $986 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,976 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $988 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $806 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 47h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $808 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $809 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $807 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $809 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $809 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $810 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $807 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $808 13d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $807 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $809 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $816 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $817 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $814 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $818 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $819 24d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 26d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $818 27d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $203 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $257 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $872 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 32d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records