Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xeecd…4fef sports 971 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33,284 (-26%) realized −$33,284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%534W / 437L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$882est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$5,131
crypto 5% −$1,021
other 0% −$181
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -14.6% -22.8% 44% 41% -26.5%
≤30d 351 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 52% -11.5%
≤90d 732 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 52% -11.7%
all 971 +3.3% -6.5% 55% 50% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 50% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 43% -22.2%
15% -23.6% 36% -29.7%
20% -31.1% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$82 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33,284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses534 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$882
Open positions0
Markets (closed)971 / 971
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 971 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$40 +269%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 −$18 -55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 −$15 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$13 -76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 +$52 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $86 −$55 -64%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $49 +$38 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17 +$9 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $75 −$72 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$15 +166%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $292 −$248 -85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$29 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$110 +61%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $118 +$63 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $45 +$74 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $17 −$8 -45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $63 −$39 -62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$14 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$11 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +181%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $85 +$28 +33%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $76 +$10 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $211 −$124 -59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$26 +22%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $102 +$14 +13%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$22 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $33 +$47 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 4m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 15m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 15m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 15m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 3¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $16 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $15 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $1 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $0 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $0 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $9 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $6 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $34 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $14 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $4 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $17 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $17 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $86 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $34 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records