trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 88¢ | 96¢ | $100 | $108 | +$8 (+8%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $21 | +$35 | +164% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$4 | +42% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $61 | +$124 | +204% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $29 | +$16 | +54% |
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? | Aug 08 | $35 | +$9 | +25% |
| Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday? | Aug 08 | $90 | +$89 | +99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 50% | 50% | -51.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 50% | 50% | -51.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 50% | 50% | -51.6% |
| all | 8 | +48.4% | +34.3% | 75% | 75% | +36.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +34.3% | 75% | +36.6% |
| 10% | +21.5% | 75% | +23.5% |
| 15% | +9.7% | 62% | +11.6% |
| 20% | -1.0% | 50% | +0.7% |