Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xeec5…b6fe world 295 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68,006 (+24%) realized +$66,550 · open +$1,456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%199W / 46L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day83.9pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28,422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$6,982
other 26% +$3,726
politics 24% +$8,925
sports 11% +$2,925
tech 1% −$187
economics 1% +$121
crypto 0% +$111
culture 0% −$35
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +1.4% -8.2% 80% 36% -1.1%
≤30d 178 +2.5% -7.3% 79% 35% -3.9%
≤90d 245 +5.1% -4.9% 81% 35% -1.7%
all 245 +5.1% -4.9% 81% 35% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 35% -1.7%
10% -14.0% 18% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.3% 11% -19.7%
20% -29.9% 8% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$984) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$149 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.14 per $1 lost it wins $4.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$28,422
Realized+$66,550
Unrealized+$1,456
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses199 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions51
Markets (closed)245 / 295
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$961
Trades / day83.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $6,594 $7,646 +$1,052 (+16%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,686 $2,671 −$14 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 70¢ 77¢ $2,035 $2,225 +$190 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $1,855 $2,149 +$294 (+16%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $1,308 $1,365 +$57 (+4%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,148 $1,171 +$23 (+2%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $1,021 $1,062 +$41 (+4%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $987 $990 +$4 (+0%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $893 $956 +$63 (+7%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 72¢ 80¢ $845 $941 +$96 (+11%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $860 $898 +$38 (+4%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 86¢ 89¢ $711 $735 +$24 (+3%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 77¢ 72¢ $721 $666 −$55 (-8%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $571 $621 +$50 (+9%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $511 $518 +$6 (+1%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 93¢ 99¢ $413 $440 +$27 (+6%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 60¢ $468 $433 −$35 (-8%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $315 $317 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $279 $271 −$8 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $253 $255 +$1 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $222 $224 +$2 (+1%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 81¢ 64¢ $273 $215 −$59 (-21%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $193 $194 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 75¢ 75¢ $172 $171 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 93¢ 91¢ $167 $164 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $73 +$17 +24%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 14 $979 +$39 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $468 +$31 +6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $14 −$3 -19%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 14 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? Jun 14 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 14 $155 +$12 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $310 −$62 -20%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $43 +$8 +19%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $142 +$18 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $246 −$45 -18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $154 −$44 -28%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 14 $1,671 +$59 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,055 −$407 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,771 +$669 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $224 +$20 +9%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3,653 +$792 +22%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +56%
Will Jordan Clarkson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $215 +$36 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $29 +$43 +148%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $948 +$200 +21%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $114 −$92 -80%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $27 −$6 -21%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $406 −$363 -89%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $185 +$16 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $977 +$23 +2%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $562 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,988 +$12 +1%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $667 +$31 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $196 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $367 +$35 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $231 +$58 +25%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $175 +$26 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $27 +$9 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $7 36m
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $57 37m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 55¢ $96 44m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $1,760 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $932 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $224 2h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 92¢ $46 3h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 70¢ $26 3h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 4h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 4h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 4h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $400 4h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $400 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $84 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $23 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $253 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $106 5h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $33 7h
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $64 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $28 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $321 8h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 70¢ $9 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 68¢ $10 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,421.92 · official $28,421.42 (match) · 3500 history records