Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeebe…72f2 sports 552 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$834 (-5%) realized −$850 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%235W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$442est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$31
14 days+$21
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,491
crypto 6% −$169
other 2% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +12.9% +2.2% 49% 44% -11.9%
≤30d 83 -11.9% -20.3% 42% 39% -15.1%
≤90d 550 -11.7% -20.1% 43% 39% -20.0%
all 551 -11.9% -20.3% 43% 39% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 39% -20.1%
10% -27.9% 34% -27.7%
15% -34.9% 28% -34.7%
20% -41.3% 23% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$850
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses235 / 316
Est. fees paid−$442
Open positions1
Markets (closed)551 / 552
History coverage90d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $141 $157 +$16 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 285 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$18 -62%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $8 +$10 +128%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$81 +133%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$44 +433%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $5 −$4 -70%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$44 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $50 +$16 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$36 +442%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $8 +$3 +33%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +148%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $129 +$24 +18%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $10 +$7 +64%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $22 −$1 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $61 −$50 -82%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $41 +$23 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $133 +$64 +48%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $38 +$30 +78%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $26 +$4 +17%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $76 +$88 +116%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $34 −$33 -97%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $22 +$27 +119%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $13 −$5 -35%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $13 +$8 +62%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $4 +$4 +88%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Mert Alkaya vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 11m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 13m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $130 14m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 26m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 14h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 19¢ $19 15h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 28¢ $39 16h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $18 16h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 44¢ $6 17h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $2 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $142 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 37¢ $15 37h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $10 37h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Giorgia Pedone 27¢ $7 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Ella Seidel 5¢ $2 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 20¢ $8 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 16¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.10 · official $149.20 · 1599 history records