Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xeebd…1911 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$152 (-0%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%18W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$674per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$28
other 37% −$100
sports 14% +$90
world 4% −$113
economics 3% −$2
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -11.8% -20.2% 8% 5% -10.6%
all 100 +2.4% -7.4% 18% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 14% -9.7%
10% -16.2% 14% -18.4%
15% -24.3% 13% -26.3%
20% -31.7% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$863) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$11 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses18 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage122d
Avg bet$674
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,937 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $398 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,763 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $826 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $729 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,370 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $444 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 07 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $445 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $454 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2,329 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,859 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $2,373 −$2 -0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $77 +$35 +45%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $459 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $643 −$1 -0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5) Mar 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $321 50m
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $508 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $645 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $645 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $884 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $885 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $862 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $863 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $865 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $866 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $768 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $711 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $712 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $631 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $632 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $860 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $861 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $407 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $408 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $480 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $481 20d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $557 20d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $558 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.81 · official $186.81 (match) · 313 history records