Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeb2…0490 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
politics 19% $0
other 15% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 12 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 8% -9.8%
all 44 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage278d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $44 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $35 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $5 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $23 −$3 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $42 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $30 $0 -1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 02 $29 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $21 $0 +2%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $46 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $44 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $44 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $44 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $20 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $35 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $43 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $43 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $40 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $27 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $16 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records