Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeb2…2e13 weather 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$249 (+2%) realized +$148 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate85%23W / 4L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$174
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$260
other 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.1% -8.6% 85% 7% -7.8%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.6% 85% 7% -7.8%
≤90d 27 +1.1% -8.6% 85% 7% -7.8%
all 27 +1.1% -8.6% 85% 7% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 7% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 4% -16.6%
15% -25.3% 4% -24.6%
20% -32.6% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$64 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3,324
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses23 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1,613 $1,685 +$72 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,158 $1,164 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $251 $264 +$13 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $118 $128 +$10 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? No 88¢ 90¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $288 +$19 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,079 +$190 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,788 +$83 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $244 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $956 +$20 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $607 −$139 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,265 +$44 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $559 +$22 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $303 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $153 +$7 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$43 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 14m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $67 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 20m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $11 20m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $89 21m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 26m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 29m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 29m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 41m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 42m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 46m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 47m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $369 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $98 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,324.08 · official $3,320.38 (match) · 235 history records