Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xeeb0…e43d other 128 markets active 5h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$21
sports 21% −$10
politics 20% −$15
crypto 14% −$15
finance 5% $0
culture 4% −$1
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 68 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 127 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage99d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $155 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $57 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $57 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $154 −$2 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $48 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $47 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 04 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $58 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $102 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $44 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $224 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $47 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $59 5h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 11h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 12h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 20h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 20h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $47 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 37h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 42h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $48 42h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $15 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $15 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $47 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $55 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $56 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $46 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $46 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $58 3d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.13 · official $47.13 (match) · 460 history records