Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xeeac…4170 other 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+8%) realized +$121 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$169
other 38% +$215
world 9% −$94
crypto 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +19.9% +8.4% 42% 39% +10.4%
≤30d 62 +19.9% +8.4% 42% 39% +10.4%
≤90d 62 +19.9% +8.4% 42% 39% +10.4%
all 62 +19.9% +8.4% 42% 39% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 39% +10.4%
10% -1.9% 37% -0.1%
15% -11.4% 35% -9.8%
20% -20.1% 32% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 67¢ 64¢ $68 $65 −$2 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 74¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+16%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 55¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $61 +$31 +51%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 +$26 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $32 +$31 +98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$12 -77%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$8 -75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $24 −$19 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$65 +127%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$40 +809%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$16 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $44 +$26 +61%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 +$57 +135%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $30 +$18 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$20 +201%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$28 +138%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$7 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 +$20 +37%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $39 +$43 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$38 +399%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$37 +46%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $29 3m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 3m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 3m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 12m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 69¢ $28 16m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 79¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo V BUY 52¢ $51 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $63 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL 10¢ $3 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL 9¢ $3 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 16¢ $6 9h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 39¢ $15 9h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $25 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $35 9h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $40 9h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay v BUY 18¢ $20 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $10 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $24 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $15 9h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.84 · official $174.84 · 150 history records