Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
EE 0xeea6…865b other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$14
politics 16% −$10
other 12% −$15
sports 1% +$63
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -15.5% -23.5% 8% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 54 -3.3% -12.5% 24% 19% -8.4%
all 69 -2.8% -12.1% 23% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 14% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 13% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 12% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage589d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 12 $120 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $255 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $18 +$10 +52%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $17 +$12 +75%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Apr 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $14 +$8 +57%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $21 +$2 +11%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $12 +$15 +122%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 23h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 24h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 55¢ $9 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $119 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $120 27d
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 32d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 33d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 33d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 34d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 35d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 47¢ $6 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.35 · official $80.35 (match) · 265 history records