Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee9d…29a1 sports 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,033 (+15%) realized +$1,042 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%91W / 134L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,210
other 12% −$161
crypto 5% −$90
economics 3% −$6
politics 3% −$3
weather 3% +$6
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +11.9% +1.3% 44% 40% -7.2%
≤30d 204 -9.7% -18.3% 41% 34% +0.7%
≤90d 225 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 33% +4.0%
all 225 -9.1% -17.8% 40% 33% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 33% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 30% -6.0%
15% -32.8% 26% -15.1%
20% -39.4% 23% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$1,042
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses91 / 134
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions3
Markets (closed)225 / 228
History coverage32d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-10%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 −$26 -69%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $56 −$55 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $54 +$58 +108%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $66 +$107 +162%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $17 −$1 -4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $1 $0 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $13 +$9 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $97 +$79 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $63 −$61 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $65 −$10 -15%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 −$4 -14%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$8 +301%
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$14 +238%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$28 -69%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $34 +$2 +6%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 −$79 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $70 −$70 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $124 −$121 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 +$64 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$222 +550%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$4 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $157 −$74 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.01 · official $142.01 (match) · 2779 history records