Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee8f…c606 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
politics 19% +$1
other 19% +$3
economics 12% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage529d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $48 +$1 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 21 $48 $0 +1%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Apr 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $520 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $8 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $294 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $49 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $3 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? Apr 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ipswich win on 2025-02-26? Mar 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on January 25? Feb 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $6 $0 +9%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -41%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 22 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $36 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $32 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $32 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $25 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $35 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $21 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 130 history records