Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee8e…9f3b sports 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 916d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$99 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%124W / 156L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$46
14 days+$13
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$39
sports 29% −$1
politics 19% −$39
world 6% +$97
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% +$33
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +21.0% +9.5% 63% 54% +15.7%
≤30d 220 +12.1% +1.4% 48% 38% -4.4%
≤90d 228 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 37% -4.9%
all 280 +7.0% -3.2% 44% 34% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 34% -9.1%
10% -12.5% 29% -17.8%
15% -20.9% 22% -25.8%
20% -28.7% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

916d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses124 / 156
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions86
Markets (closed)280 / 366
History coverage916d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 60¢ 97¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 68¢ 98¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-36%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 79¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 38¢ 41¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 23¢ 60¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+164%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 20¢ 16¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 22¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 28¢ 29¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 44¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +112%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $11 +$12 +110%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +72%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1 +$1 +128%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +77%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $3 56m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $4 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $1 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $3 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 32¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 10h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 40¢ $1 12h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 12h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 12h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 66¢ $3 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 25¢ $4 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 13h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 1¢ $0 14h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $1 15h
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $1 16h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 99¢ $1 16h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 3¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.26 · official $264.39 (match) · 1025 history records