Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee8d…030a sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$30
other 40% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 29% +0.8%
≤30d 31 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 29% +0.8%
≤90d 31 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 29% +0.8%
all 31 -30.4% -37.0% 32% 29% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 29% +0.8%
10% -43.1% 29% -8.8%
15% -48.6% 29% -17.7%
20% -53.6% 19% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$17 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $133 +$47 +36%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $125 +$84 +67%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 −$4 -23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 +$11 +10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $133 +$163 +122%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $64 −$62 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $71 +$31 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$15 +92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$39 +54%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $47 +$24 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $96 +$70 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $115 2m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Ghana 100¢ $209 2m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 59¢ $125 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $113 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 56¢ $65 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 66¢ $65 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $67 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $11 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 23h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 41h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 17¢ $20 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 42h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $64 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $64 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $67 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $66 45h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $101 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records