Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee8a…3cda other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 21% $0
finance 12% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.3%
all 31 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 3% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 3% -11.1%
10% -27.0% 0% -19.6%
15% -34.0% 0% -27.3%
20% -40.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage486d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $45 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -55%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2300 on May 27? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 24 $6 $0 +2%
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 28 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $43 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $45 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $7 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $8 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $33 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $45 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $45 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $24 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 96¢ $16 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $41 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 26d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $5 357d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes $0 357d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $5 377d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening SELL No 96¢ $5 377d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening BUY No 97¢ $5 378d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 378d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 379d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes $0 379d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes $0 379d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes $0 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records