Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xee8a…4fb2 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$798 (+1%) realized +$773 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%65W / 38L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$360
14 days−$733
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$44
politics 21% −$31
sports 21% +$1,460
world 21% −$826
tech 5% +$44
finance 2% +$58
economics 1% +$62
weather 1% +$26
culture 1% +$18
crypto 0% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.4% -1.0% 62% 54% -15.9%
≤30d 31 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 39% -11.0%
≤90d 60 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 30% -9.9%
all 103 -1.4% -10.8% 63% 31% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 31% -8.2%
10% -19.3% 10% -17.0%
15% -27.1% 8% -25.0%
20% -34.3% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$808) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$133 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized+$773
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses65 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage270d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $334 $350 +$16 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $522 +$145 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $305 +$40 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $180 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $322 −$18 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $354 −$240 -68%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $503 +$60 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $228 −$8 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$96 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $451 +$54 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $1,004 −$640 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $856 +$110 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $260 +$23 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $800 +$109 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $702 −$700 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $151 +$14 +9%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $808 +$155 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,652 +$43 +3%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 03 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $1,103 +$54 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$11 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,263 +$193 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 30 $100 −$17 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $179 −$8 -4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 27 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 27 $100 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $668 +$371 +56%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 24 $1,333 −$88 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $434 +$39 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $504 +$26 +5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $637 +$74 +12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 17 $100 −$72 -72%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 17 $458 +$23 +5%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $492 −$353 -72%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $171 −$82 -48%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 13 $370 +$121 +33%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $182 −$11 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 13 $507 −$63 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $164 −$10 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $581 −$90 -16%
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral electi May 10 $195 +$14 +7%
Chirayu Rana fired? May 01 $95 −$27 -28%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $672 +$43 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $1,113 +$163 +15%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 18 $67 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 18 $65 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $108 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 99¢ $667 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $345 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $345 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $177 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $177 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $305 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $304 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $322 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $114 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $354 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $563 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $220 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $220 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $228 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $283 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $132 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $90 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $451 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $364 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $273 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $300 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $111 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $180 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $506 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $350 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.68 · official $558.68 (match) · 428 history records