trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $10 | +$5 (+104%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-10%) |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $5 | +$2 | +44% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 11 | $8 | +$2 | +23% |
| UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma | May 30 | $5 | +$1 | +21% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Cejudo vs. Song | Mar 09 | $3 | +$1 | +41% |
| Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayel | Feb 23 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 16 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $102 | −$85 | -83% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +33.2% | +20.5% | 100% | 100% | +18.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +29.1% | +16.8% | 100% | 100% | +15.9% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +29.1% | +16.8% | 100% | 100% | +15.9% |
| all | 8 | -14.3% | -22.5% | 62% | 62% | -63.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.5% | 62% | -63.3% |
| 10% | -29.9% | 50% | -66.8% |
| 15% | -36.7% | 38% | -70.0% |
| 20% | -42.9% | 0% | -73.0% |