Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EE 0xee7a…70bd world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$18
other 17% +$5
politics 8% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +30.3% +17.9% 67% 33% -2.0%
≤30d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 50% 14% -6.6%
≤90d 17 +6.7% -3.5% 47% 12% -7.0%
all 47 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 6% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -7.7%
10% -19.4% 4% -16.5%
15% -27.2% 4% -24.6%
20% -34.3% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $9 +$8 +91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $48 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $33 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $44 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $43 +$5 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $1 $0 -51%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 +3%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 04 $1 $0 -17%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$5 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $2 $0 -30%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $9 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $6 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $3 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $8 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $48 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $53 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $53 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $53 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $54 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $37 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $29 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $23 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $48 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $48 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.71 · official $30.71 (match) · 130 history records