Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee76…8fce other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$560 (-4%) realized −$556 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$36
14 days−$904
30 days−$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$593
crypto 33% −$1,271
sports 26% −$250
tech 1% +$38
politics 0% −$62
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.3% -18.0% 57% 43% -0.0%
≤30d 29 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 48% -27.0%
≤90d 85 -4.3% -13.4% 36% 34% -26.8%
all 99 +10.2% -0.3% 41% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 38% -17.0%
10% -9.8% 36% -24.9%
15% -18.5% 30% -32.2%
20% -26.5% 25% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$95 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$556
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 58
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage137d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $82 −$40 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $99 +$5 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$60 +118%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $106 +$44 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $51 +$37 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $788 −$463 -59%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $578 −$576 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $421 +$116 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $101 +$77 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina May 27 $97 +$300 +309%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $35 +$15 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $63 +$42 +67%
Roland Garros WTA: Lilli Tagger vs Xinyu Wang May 24 $69 −$28 -41%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $61 +$32 +53%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro May 23 $671 −$143 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $145 −$18 -12%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Petra Marcinko May 23 $101 +$57 +57%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $46 +$54 +118%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 22 $75 +$25 +34%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $58 +$189 +325%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $2 +$134 +5756%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $16 −$16 -96%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $83 −$80 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko May 09 $255 +$283 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 09 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 09 $244 −$235 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 09 $497 −$490 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 09 $42 −$4 -8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $102 −$57 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 08 $939 +$1,061 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $414 −$400 -97%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 06 $22 −$21 -96%
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 06 $12 +$10 +80%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 06 $8 +$4 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $11 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $169 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $22 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $19 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $20 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $104 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $99 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 70¢ $21 5d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 70¢ $3 5d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 70¢ $83 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $213 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $245 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $308 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $29 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $19 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 22¢ $282 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $219 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $41 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $46 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $57 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $30 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $10 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 63¢ $144 10d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 62¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.68 · official $91.68 (match) · 419 history records