Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee75…ffe9 crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$398 (-4%) realized −$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%81W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$333
14 days+$264
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$71
other 17% +$59
sports 5% −$40
world 2% −$78
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +81.8% +64.5% 100% 100% +86.7%
≤30d 8 +36.9% +23.9% 62% 62% +41.0%
≤90d 19 -12.0% -20.3% 47% 47% -16.0%
all 120 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 52% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 52% -10.9%
10% -22.1% 38% -19.4%
15% -29.6% 18% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$42 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses81 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage337d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$243 +238%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $59 +$21 +36%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 −$70 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $5 $0 -8%
World Championships: Norway vs. Sweden May 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $103 −$43 -42%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $121 −$120 -99%
Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress? May 02 $10 +$3 +27%
Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joi May 02 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Credit One Charleston Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Anna Bondar Mar 30 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-28? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 28 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $200 +$50 +25%
Will England win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $100 −$21 -21%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 27 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 27 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $100 +$15 +15%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 27 $110 −$7 -6%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 27 $80 +$25 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 27 $130 +$22 +17%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 27 $20 +$10 +51%
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 27 $110 +$4 +3%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$16 +32%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 27 $40 +$15 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 27 $25 +$6 +26%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 27 $100 +$21 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $100 +$23 +23%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 27 $63 +$16 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 34¢ $19 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 26¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 73¢ $59 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 24¢ $20 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? A BUY 51¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $63 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $133 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 27d
World Championships: Norway vs. Sweden SELL Norway 100¢ $135 35d
World Championships: Norway vs. Sweden BUY Norway 74¢ $101 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 42d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $103 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 77¢ $121 48d
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 60d
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 60d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 60d
Will King Charles say "Special Relationship" during the joint meeting BUY Yes 51¢ $10 60d
Will King Charles say "Ukraine" during the joint meeting of Congress? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 60d
Will King Charles say "American" or "America" 15+ times during the joi BUY Yes 68¢ $10 60d
Credit One Charleston Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Bondar 100¢ $113 89d
Credit One Charleston Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 88¢ $100 89d
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-28? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 91d
Solana Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records