Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xee74…d17e world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$160 (+6%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$5
sports 12% +$147
politics 7% +$4
other 6% +$5
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 32 -2.7% -11.9% 41% 0% -9.3%
all 58 +10.1% -0.4% 53% 21% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 21% -4.1%
10% -9.9% 14% -13.2%
15% -18.6% 12% -21.6%
20% -26.6% 10% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.36 per $1 lost it wins $6.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage524d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $21 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $78 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $59 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $85 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $85 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $268 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $12 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $259 +$1 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German ele Mar 20 $167 +$1 +1%
Northwestern vs. Minnesota Mar 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Wyoming vs. Nevada Feb 25 $144 +$18 +13%
St. Louis vs. Davidson Feb 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Maine vs. Albany Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Charleston vs. Northeastern Feb 24 $78 +$78 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $5 $0 -2%
Lehigh vs. Bucknell Feb 18 $42 +$42 +100%
Norfolk State vs. MD Eastern Shore Feb 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Wisconsin vs. Purdue Feb 16 $11 +$20 +194%
Will FCSB win on 2025-02-13? Feb 14 $1 +$5 +400%
UC San Diego vs. CSU Bakersfield Feb 14 $3 +$4 +117%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Feb 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Evansville vs. Missouri State Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $5 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.21 · official $45.21 (match) · 208 history records