Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee6d…e571 crypto 173 markets active 4h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%93W / 79L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$11
14 days−$8
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$28
sports 19% −$20
other 5% $0
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 50% -18.9%
≤30d 167 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 52% -8.1%
≤90d 172 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 52% -7.7%
all 172 +1.2% -8.4% 54% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 52% -7.7%
10% -17.2% 52% -16.5%
15% -25.2% 46% -24.6%
20% -32.5% 38% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses93 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 +$10 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Álex Arce: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 43h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 43h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 46h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 46h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Antonio Sanabria: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Álex Arce: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.05 · official $5.05 (match) · 354 history records