Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee6b…a519 politics 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$9
politics 18% +$1
other 16% −$9
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 12% -6.5%
≤30d 13 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 8% -7.3%
≤90d 13 +2.7% -7.0% 54% 8% -7.3%
all 61 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage303d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $7 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $21 −$3 -13%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $17 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $17 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $7 $0 -5%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $14 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 7d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $2 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $5 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $20 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records