Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee6b…e9d8 sports 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,125 (+7%) realized +$1,236 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%234W / 109L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$336
14 days+$428
30 days+$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$836
sports 32% +$75
weather 11% +$162
culture 4% −$154
world 3% +$35
tech 2% −$76
finance 0% −$29
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +62.9% +47.4% 68% 53% +9.4%
≤30d 93 +24.3% +12.4% 70% 49% +0.5%
≤90d 340 +11.7% +1.0% 68% 53% -3.3%
all 343 +12.0% +1.3% 68% 53% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 53% -3.2%
10% -8.4% 41% -12.5%
15% -17.2% 30% -20.9%
20% -25.3% 21% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,809
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses234 / 109
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions23
Markets (closed)343 / 366
History coverage91d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 95¢ $169 $208 +$39 (+23%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $178 $185 +$7 (+4%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $111 $110 −$2 (-1%)
New Half-Life game by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $108 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 97¢ $89 $97 +$8 (+8%)
Amouranth divorced by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+5%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Will "Mortal Kombat II" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs? No 96¢ 81¢ $96 $81 −$15 (-16%)
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? No 70¢ 80¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+14%)
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30? No 90¢ 80¢ $54 $49 −$6 (-11%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 53¢ 43¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $31 $25 −$6 (-19%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-23%)
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-69%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 90¢ 5¢ $90 $5 −$85 (-95%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 30¢ 4¢ $30 $4 −$26 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$17 -35%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $444 +$3 +1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $81 +$19 +23%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $25 +$318 +1271%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $172 +$18 +11%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 14 $65 −$27 -42%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $143 −$65 -45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $81 +$24 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $59 +$41 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $74 +$26 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Andre Douglas be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 10 $0 +$1 +637%
Will Jessica Meir be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Matthew Dominick be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $83 +$3 +3%
Will Christina Koch be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $31 +$6 +18%
Will Frank Rubio be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will Jessica Watkins be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $272 +$28 +10%
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $55 +$45 +81%
Will JD Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 06 $257 −$35 -14%
Will FURIA win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 06 $66 +$84 +129%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Movistar KOI qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $625M? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +37%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $500M? Jun 03 $35 +$2 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $78 +$22 +28%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $87 +$13 +15%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $25 +$10 +40%
Will BNK FEARX qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 01 $240 +$8 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $94 −$37 -39%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 30 $13 +$7 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $88 +$12 +13%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? May 30 $1 +$1 +78%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 30 $22 −$11 -49%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? May 29 $11 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $12 +$8 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 4m
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart b BUY No 86¢ $13 46m
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $96 51m
Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $15 52m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 1h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 2h
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 93¢ $447 2h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 43h
Amouranth divorced by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $97 2d
New Half-Life game by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $75 2d
New Half-Life game by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $34 2d
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart b BUY No 91¢ $42 2d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $277 3d
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the IEM Cologne Major 2026 playoffs? BUY No 96¢ $96 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 33¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $17 4d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $172 4d
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 83¢ $29 4d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 60¢ $18 4d
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 96¢ $96 4d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 5d
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 33¢ $65 5d
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 80¢ $80 5d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 5d
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 5d
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? BUY No 53¢ $54 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 69¢ $21 5d
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,808.52 · official $1,808.52 (match) · 953 history records