Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee6b…accb sports 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$861 (-4%) realized −$1,196 · open −$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%115W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$308est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$111
14 days−$1,299
30 days−$1,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,085
other 9% −$232
crypto 1% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 60% -13.8%
≤30d 249 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 42% -14.6%
≤90d 249 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 42% -14.6%
all 249 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 42% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 33% -22.8%
15% -31.8% 27% -30.3%
20% -38.5% 22% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$61 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$1,196
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses115 / 134
Est. fees paid−$308
Open positions10
Markets (closed)249 / 259
History coverage19d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$71 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$17 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$38 -37%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$15 +29%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$59 +58%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$18 +17%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$5 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $101 −$1 -1%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $102 −$27 -27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $101 −$67 -66%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $102 +$145 +142%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $101 −$60 -59%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $101 +$91 +89%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $51 35m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $50 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $50 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $50 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 10h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $50 11h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 19h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $50 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $50 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $50 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $51 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.35 · official $347.35 · 723 history records