Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EE 0xee6a…9f05 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$924 (+19%) realized +$1,037 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$897
other 11% +$24
finance 8% +$33
sports 7% −$11
politics 5% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.5% -29.9% 0% 0% -26.5%
≤30d 6 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 50% -1.4%
≤90d 22 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 41% +14.3%
all 30 +6.4% -3.8% 50% 40% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 40% +12.0%
10% -13.0% 40% +1.3%
15% -21.4% 30% -8.5%
20% -29.1% 17% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$24 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized+$1,037
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage162d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $380 $340 −$40 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $100 $32 −$68 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? Jun 26 $102 −$31 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 26 $300 −$45 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $360 +$21 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $150 +$62 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $200 +$58 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $150 +$48 +32%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $40 −$5 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $125 +$166 +133%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $200 +$212 +106%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 24 $220 +$12 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 24 $60 −$29 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 22 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 19 $110 +$50 +45%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $62 −$15 -24%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 13 $62 +$5 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 13 $230 +$64 +28%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 13 $26 −$17 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $818 +$356 +44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 11 $100 −$4 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 11 $234 −$7 -3%
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $50 −$13 -26%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $425 +$212 +50%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 01 $20 +$57 +285%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $25 +$41 +163%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jan 27 $22 +$12 +54%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $67 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $383 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $381 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $360 24d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $212 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $258 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $198 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $200 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $150 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $21 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $3 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $2 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $5 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $3 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $10 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 3¢ $30 31d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $150 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? BUY No 43¢ $51 32d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 32d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $31 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.03 · official $464.03 (match) · 119 history records