Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee67…ef38 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$738,857 (+194%) realized +$744,233 · open −$5,376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 85L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,114per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Fees−$3,003est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$102,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$24,491
sports 35% +$64,822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -63.1% -66.6% 9% 9% -34.1%
≤30d 88 -49.0% -53.8% 12% 12% -18.9%
≤90d 97 -46.2% -51.3% 12% 12% -34.5%
all 97 -46.2% -51.3% 12% 12% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.3% 12% -34.5%
10% -56.0% 12% -40.8%
15% ← realistic here -60.2% 12% -46.5%
20% -64.1% 12% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$6,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
70.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17,834 vs −$4,144 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$102,304
Realized+$744,233
Unrealized−$5,376
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$3,003
Open positions21
Markets (closed)97 / 47
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$8,114
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $36,571 $28,109 −$8,462 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $18,254 $21,335 +$3,081 (+17%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $13,483 $11,574 −$1,910 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $11,100 $10,950 −$150 (-1%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 49¢ $4,609 $7,861 +$3,252 (+71%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5,848 $5,743 −$105 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4,026 $3,908 −$118 (-3%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $3,166 $3,005 −$161 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $2,631 $2,683 +$52 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2,625 $2,081 −$544 (-21%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $630 $1,295 +$665 (+106%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $877 $957 +$80 (+9%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $750 +$50 (+7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $531 $663 +$133 (+25%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $1,195 $550 −$645 (-54%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $710 $339 −$371 (-52%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $410 $240 −$170 (-41%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $200 $131 −$69 (-34%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $114 $130 +$16 (+14%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,776 −$3,776 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 17 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $1,616 −$3,193 -198%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 17 $1,948 −$1,948 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,975 −$4,601 -155%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $351 −$351 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Jun 17 $284 −$284 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17? Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 17 $10,200 −$10,200 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 17 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 17 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,799 −$1,799 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-10-25? Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jun 17 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-05? Jun 17 $2,238 −$2,238 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 17 $3,980 −$4,245 -107%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06? Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? Jun 17 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $240 −$178 -74%
FC Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8,786 −$8,786 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 17 $5,250 −$5,250 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-03-30? Jun 17 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10,600 −$10,600 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Jun 17 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 16? Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $7,600 −$7,600 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Jun 17 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $701 −$701 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $282 −$282 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $3,737 −$3,737 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,512 −$2,512 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7,981 −$7,981 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 34m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 34m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 34m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 37m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 37m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 39m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 39m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 40m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 41m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 43m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 43m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102,304.09 · official $102,303.87 (match) · 3500 history records