Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee67…88df world 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,891 (-2%) realized −$16,892 · open +$1,001
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate79%178W / 48L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,466per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$18,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,845
7 days+$3,984
14 days+$4,405
30 days+$7,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$16,982
other 17% −$1,823
sports 3% +$6,142
politics 3% +$319
finance 2% −$22
crypto 0% +$184
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 35% -3.9%
≤30d 58 +2.6% -7.1% 90% 19% -6.4%
≤90d 150 +4.0% -5.9% 83% 17% -6.5%
all 226 +0.5% -9.1% 79% 14% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 14% -10.9%
10% -17.8% 7% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 5% -27.2%
20% -33.0% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$4,514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$1,071 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$18,788
Realized−$16,892
Unrealized+$1,001
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses178 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions18
Markets (closed)226 / 244
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$3,466
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $2,491 $3,121 +$630 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $1,475 $2,374 +$900 (+61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,524 $2,245 −$279 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,848 $1,799 −$49 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,118 $1,289 +$170 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $875 $867 −$8 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,394 $851 −$543 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $551 $835 +$284 (+51%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $689 $696 +$8 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $243 $559 +$316 (+130%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $421 $494 +$73 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $430 $316 −$114 (-26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $276 $267 −$8 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $309 $236 −$73 (-24%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $195 $203 +$8 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $322 $170 −$151 (-47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $105 −$73 (-41%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $178 $89 −$89 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6,049 +$2,266 +38%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $517 +$135 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,204 −$1,520 -69%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $1,908 +$371 +19%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $304 −$174 -57%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $11,727 +$27 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,412 +$257 +6%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,015 +$39 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,510 +$375 +15%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $240 +$2 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $73 +$1 +1%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,945 +$66 +3%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,019 +$983 +49%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1,004 +$178 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $419 −$410 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $10,697 +$203 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $140 −$50 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,962 +$69 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,275 +$240 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,010 +$171 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $950 +$243 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $501 +$37 +7%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $517 +$31 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $12,231 +$494 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,066 −$109 -10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4,897 +$45 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $4,853 +$298 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,734 +$78 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1,849 +$36 +2%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 09 $710 +$24 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $12,458 +$302 +2%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 08 $414 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $18,450 +$267 +1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 07 $5,468 +$143 +3%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 07 $1,109 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $11,919 +$168 +1%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $41 +$1 +2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$3 +10%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $520 +$23 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$11 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,347 +$5 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $11,405 +$347 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $6,687 +$161 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $10,639 +$480 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $501 +$24 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $11,417 +$181 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $51 +$45 +90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 27 $6,649 +$57 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $11,072 +$355 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 25m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 30m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 32m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 32m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 33m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $746 33m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $2,019 34m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $643 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $453 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $15 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $26 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $19 1h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $130 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $1,689 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $4,117 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $844 2h
US military draft authorized in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2,275 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,051 24h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,054 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,857 24h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 24h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 24h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,787.78 · official $18,786.64 (match) · 3500 history records