Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee67…e6fe other 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$4,960 (-24%) realized −$5,381 · open −$216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%64W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$1,135
14 days−$1,135
30 days−$1,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$3,818
crypto 34% −$2,569
sports 20% +$841
tech 0% −$23
economics 0% −$8
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 32% -39.3%
≤30d 25 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 32% -39.3%
≤90d 25 +2.7% -7.1% 32% 32% -39.3%
all 232 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 28% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 28% -34.7%
10% -32.4% 26% -41.0%
15% -39.0% 24% -46.7%
20% -44.9% 22% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$72 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$477
Realized−$5,381
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses64 / 168
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)232 / 240
History coverage161d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $145 $141 −$4 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $107 $1 −$107 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $318 $0 −$318 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-24? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $296 $0 −$296 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $355 $0 −$355 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$106 +207%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $362 −$355 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 −$290 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$94 +183%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $233 +$75 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $184 +$304 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$333 +649%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$174 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $128 +$322 +252%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $256 −$250 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 24 $319 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 24 $71 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 24 $550 −$470 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 24 $600 +$280 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 24 $500 +$97 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 24 $500 −$296 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 24 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 24 $470 −$55 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 24 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Feb 24 $320 +$184 +57%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $70 −$43 -62%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $100 −$77 -77%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw? Feb 24 $10 −$3 -28%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $110 +$471 +429%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Feb 24 $170 −$24 -14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 49m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 49m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 49m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 50m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 52m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 56m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 58m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 58m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $157 58m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 17h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 53¢ $145 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $202 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $308 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $233 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.57 · official $476.65 (match) · 679 history records