Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee65…b3e6 crypto 84 markets active 3d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$20
other 29% +$4
sports 6% −$12
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -19.4% -27.1% 34% 28% -16.3%
≤30d 83 -15.4% -23.4% 41% 39% -13.2%
≤90d 83 -15.4% -23.4% 41% 39% -13.2%
all 84 -16.4% -24.3% 40% 38% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 38% -14.3%
10% -31.6% 37% -22.5%
15% -38.2% 32% -30.0%
20% -44.2% 31% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage123d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $11 −$8 -75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +111%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -87%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +107%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 21 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 21 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 21 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 21 $9 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 10¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 29¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records