Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee62…17ff other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$14
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 56% -6.9%
≤30d 12 -3.0% -12.3% 67% 42% -15.9%
≤90d 12 -3.0% -12.3% 67% 42% -15.9%
all 12 -3.0% -12.3% 67% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 42% -15.9%
10% -20.7% 25% -23.9%
15% -28.3% 25% -31.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$30 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$5 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$5 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$18 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $91 −$55 -60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$21 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $61 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $25 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $56 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $91 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $81 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $40 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $61 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $59 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.36 · official $60.36 (match) · 25 history records