Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee60…c2c0 other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 215L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
sports 20% −$13
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
culture 7% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $750 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $416 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $594 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $240 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 07 $430 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $474 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $753 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 23m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 7h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 11h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $54 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $54 18h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 19h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 20h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 35h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 36h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 43h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.16 · official $53.16 (match) · 1321 history records