Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee5e…e5a7 crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$505 (+6%) realized +$541 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%70W / 84L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$109
other 11% +$249
sports 4% +$214
world 2% +$63
politics 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 44% -8.8%
≤30d 116 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 44% -8.8%
≤90d 116 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 44% -8.8%
all 154 +14.0% +3.2% 45% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 40% -5.3%
10% -6.7% 39% -14.3%
15% -15.7% 38% -22.6%
20% -24.0% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$31 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$541
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses70 / 84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage583d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 38¢ 55¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$55 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$65 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$84 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$52 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$69 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$157 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$88 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$26 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$85 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$35 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$33 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.17 · official $86.54 · 547 history records