Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee5b…8b0a sports 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate56%121W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$13
14 days+$32
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$21
crypto 33% −$19
other 5% +$16
world 1% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +25.0% +13.1% 47% 27% -7.4%
≤30d 47 -2.9% -12.1% 53% 19% -7.5%
≤90d 173 -2.8% -12.0% 55% 20% -8.8%
all 216 -6.3% -15.2% 56% 19% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 19% -9.0%
10% -23.3% 15% -17.7%
15% -30.7% 11% -25.7%
20% -37.5% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses121 / 95
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage192d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $59 $0 -0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +75%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 +$7 +650%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $49 +$5 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $53 +$3 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 +$3 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will England win? Jun 07 $32 +$18 +57%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $10 −$6 -58%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $35 +$8 +23%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $2 −$1 -53%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $38 +$3 +8%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $3 $0 -3%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win? May 28 $76 +$6 +8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $36 −$2 -6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $32 +$2 +7%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $36 −$4 -10%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $3 +$1 +24%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $30 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $10 13h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $40 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 34¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL India 100¢ $60 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 100¢ $60 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $60 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $60 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 13¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $54 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $49 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 14¢ $1 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 54¢ $3 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.43 · official $8.43 (match) · 537 history records