Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee59…1d10 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%39W / 2L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$9
crypto 22% −$4
world 15% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 95% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses39 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage452d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 99¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the May 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 03 $79 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 26 $64 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 11 $177 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January Feb 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January? Feb 02 $60 $0 +0%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) Jan 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15? Dec 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5? Dec 08 $26 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 11 $88 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $26 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31? Sep 01 $18 +$1 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Aug 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 18 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9? May 05 $84 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 01 $40 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $45 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $27 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 3? Apr 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kevin O'Leary buy TikTok? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 1h
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $77 6d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $10 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $14 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $5 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $50 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $79 56d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 56d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 89d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 102d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $177 120d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of January BUY No 100¢ $50 145d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 145d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January? BUY No 100¢ $60 145d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $65 186d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5? BUY No 99¢ $26 197d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? BUY No 98¢ $19 220d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 220d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 245d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $88 253d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $26 289d
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 294d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 325d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? SELL No 38¢ $6 338d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? BUY No 98¢ $16 347d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? BUY Down 99¢ $75 397d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 97¢ $14 400d
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? BUY No 100¢ $55 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.95 · official $146.95 (match) · 90 history records