Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee58…9890 politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%4W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$4
economics 26% −$49
world 24% −$49
sports 8% −$16
other 5% −$4
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 3 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 5 -1.7% -11.1% 20% 0% -12.3%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 5% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -11.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses4 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage236d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $917 −$35 -4%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $303 −$10 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $1,500 −$37 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $99 −$5 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 06 $385 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $386 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 05 $386 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $387 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 04 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $258 −$1 -0%
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 30? Oct 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Oct 29 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Oct 29 $190 −$16 -8%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? Oct 29 $200 −$11 -6%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 29 $200 −$5 -3%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Oct 29 $59 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 29 $100 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 29 $150 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $191 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $208 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $297 26h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $303 26h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $293 2d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $303 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $873 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $900 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $590 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $600 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $395 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $406 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24? SELL Yes 78¢ $93 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 94¢ $20 102d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $382 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $385 105d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $385 105d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $386 105d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $386 106d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $386 106d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $386 107d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $387 107d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $22 107d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $28 191d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $28 191d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $20 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 233d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 92¢ $649 233d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 92¢ $650 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records