Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee57…961e other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$27
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$41
sports 29% −$20
crypto 6% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -22.0% -29.4% 33% 33% -18.4%
≤30d 28 -19.0% -26.8% 36% 36% -20.3%
≤90d 28 -19.0% -26.8% 36% 36% -20.3%
all 29 -18.4% -26.2% 34% 34% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 34% -20.1%
10% -33.2% 34% -27.7%
15% -39.7% 34% -34.7%
20% -45.6% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 39
History coverage224d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $180 $217 +$37 (+20%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$19 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +244%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +257%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -74%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 05 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $10 52m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $10 54m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $95 57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $82 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.36 · official $295.36 (match) · 72 history records