Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee52…1817 politics 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,483 (-1%) realized −$1,483 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,295per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$40
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$106
other 35% −$170
sports 15% −$1,233
culture 3% −$8
world 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 3% -10.8%
all 166 +4.0% -5.9% 19% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 9% -10.2%
10% -14.9% 9% -18.8%
15% -23.1% 7% -26.6%
20% -30.7% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,781) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$18 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$847
Realized−$1,483
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,295
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $848 $847 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,880 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,781 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,115 −$6 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,464 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $757 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $178 +$3 +2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,378 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,759 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,282 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,872 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $540 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $50 +$59 +119%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $717 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $718 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $388 +$1 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $890 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,239 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $60 +$77 +129%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,568 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $914 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $58 +$101 +172%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $624 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $737 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $738 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $549 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $559 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $560 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $869 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $879 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $880 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $869 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $870 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $835 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $836 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $757 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $649 10d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $650 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $758 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $759 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $760 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $761 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.37 · official $847.37 (match) · 550 history records