Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EE 0xee51…8caa other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$219 (-13%) realized −$201 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$101
other 48% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.4% -52.4% 40% 40% -27.8%
≤30d 5 -47.4% -52.4% 40% 40% -27.8%
≤90d 5 -47.4% -52.4% 40% 40% -27.8%
all 5 -47.4% -52.4% 40% 40% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 40% -27.8%
10% -57.0% 40% -34.7%
15% -61.1% 20% -41.0%
20% -64.9% 0% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$128 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $206 +$76 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $257 −$257 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $406 +$105 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.33 · official $682.33 (match) · 26 history records