Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EE 0xee4e…fbfb crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 497d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,318 (-8%) realized −$2,318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%55W / 47L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days+$281
14 days+$281
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,231
sports 17% +$1,430
other 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +13.7% +2.9% 62% 59% +5.6%
≤30d 39 +13.7% +2.9% 62% 59% +5.6%
≤90d 101 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 49% -18.2%
all 102 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -18.2%
10% -23.6% 46% -26.0%
15% -31.0% 42% -33.2%
20% -37.8% 32% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$184 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

497d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses55 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage497d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $265 +$116 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$32 +158%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$24 +152%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $93 +$49 +52%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 +$44 +90%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$77 +152%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 +$112 +275%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$26 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +144%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $82 +$36 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $59 +$58 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $26 +$7 +26%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Vitality (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $50 +$52 +105%
LoL: Barça eSports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 23 $1,342 −$1,342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 22 $4,041 −$4,032 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 22 $753 +$589 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 22 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 22 $88 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 22 $42 +$46 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 22 $4,405 +$348 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 22 $4,078 +$327 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $83 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $61 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $32 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 33h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $20 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 65¢ $93 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $49 4d
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $50 5d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $51 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $51 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 26¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $40 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records