Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee4d…59f7 other 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
other 37% +$3
politics 11% +$1
tech 5% $0
culture 3% +$1
crypto 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.7% -12.0% 14% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 7 -2.7% -12.0% 14% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 7 -2.7% -12.0% 14% 0% -11.0%
all 35 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage442d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 12 $1 $0 +3%
Yoon in jail before July? Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $20 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Jun 08 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 16 $2 −$2 -66%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 05 $19 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Is Markiplier engaged? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $31 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $31 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $22 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 7d
Yoon in jail before July? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 352d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $20 355d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 356d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records